The tendency to perceive past events as more predictable than they were. Also known as the 'I-knew-it-all-along' effect.
Prevents proper learning from mistakes and creates overconfidence in future predictions.
This bias makes us terrible at learning from history because we think past events were more obvious than they actually were.
"The human brain: 3 billion years of evolution perfecting the art of being wrong with complete certainty."
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