High Impact
Algorithm: High
Probability Assessment
Base Rate Fallacy
"Statistics are for other people. This specific case is obviously different."
What is Base Rate Fallacy?

Ignoring statistical base rates in favour of individuating information. Personal anecdotes always trump data.

Real-World Impact

Leads to poor risk assessment, medical misdiagnosis, and explains why personal stories trump statistical evidence.

Fun Fact

This fallacy explains why people buy lottery tickets but don't buy insurance, and why medical students diagnose rare diseases.

Random Insight

"Good news: You're not as unique as you think. Bad news: You're not as rational as you think either."