High Impact
Algorithm: Low
Decision Making
Outcome Bias
"Good outcome equals good decision. Bad outcome equals bad decision. Simple math."
What is Outcome Bias?

Judging a decision based on its outcome rather than the quality of the decision at the time.

Real-World Impact

Prevents learning from experience, rewards lucky idiots, and punishes unlucky experts.

Fun Fact

This bias makes us terrible at learning from experience because we focus on results rather than process, making us repeat good luck and avoid good strategy.

Random Insight

"The only thing more predictable than human irrationality is humans' surprise at being irrational."

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